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Polling Shows Growing Support For Marriage Equality

A poll by CBS News is saying… 33 percent of Americans believe gay
couples should be allowed to marry. This is up five points from two
years ago.

On the other hand the poll found 27 percent of respondents think that
while gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions they should
not be allowed to legally marry, while 35 per cent believe there
should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship at all.

In this country, Same-sex marriage is currently legal in only three
states… Massachusetts, Connecticut and Iowa.

Civil union and domestic partnership laws in force in Vermont and New Jersey grant same-sex couples all state-level rights and obligations of marriage in areas such as inheritance, income tax, insurance and hospital visitation. Other forms of domestic partnership exist in California, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, Oregon and Washington State.

The Vermont and New Hampshire legislatures have recently passed or in some stage of passing same-sex marriage laws. Hawaiian lawmakers are currently debating a full right civil union bill in that state and the State of New York at present recognizes same-sex marriage performed in other states.

In May 2008, California’s Supreme Court overturned a ban on same-sex marriage in a 4-3 decision, effectively allowing full marriage rights to same-sex partners. But in November 2008, 52.5 per cent of others in California endorsed Proposition 8, which seeks to amend the state Constitution to define marriage as only between a man and a woman. That amendment is also currently under review by that states Supreme Court with a decision expected by May.

Traditionally, the federal government did not attempt to establish its own definition of marriage; any marriage recognized by a state was recognized by the federal government, even if that marriage was not recognized by one or more other states (as was the case with interracial marriage before 1967 due to anti-miscegenation aws).

However with the passage of the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996, a marriage was explicitly defined as a union of one man and one woman for the purposes of federal law. Thus, no act or agency of the federal government currently recognizes same-sex marriage. According Government Accountability Office (GAO), more than 1,138 rights and protections are conferred to U.S. citizens upon marriage by the federal government.

Lawmakers in Sweden’s Diet voted 226-22 on April 1st to recognize same-sex marriage in the country. Same-sex marriage is also legal and fully recognized in the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Canada, South Africa and Norway. Moreover at least 21 other countries offer some form of legal recognition to same-sex unions.

Polling Data
Which comes closest to your view?
Mar. 2009 Jun. 2008 Mar. 2007
Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry 33% 30% 28%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally
marry 27% 28% 32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship
35% 36% 35%
Not sure 5% 6% 5%
Source: CBS News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,142 American adults,
conducted from Mar. 12 to Mar. 16, 2009. Margin of error is 3 percent.

Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.com has done a model showing how same-sex marriage will slowly gain traction in the upcoming years. The overriding factor in support or opposition to marriage equality comes from the religious fervor of the individual. Indeed, Silver’s model is based upon three things- the year in which the amendment was voted on; the percentage of adults who, according to Gallup, say that religion is very important in their lives; and the number of white evangelicals in the state. Those three variables account for three-quarters of the performances of the various amendments in those states.

According to Silver, using this model showed that California would have passed Prop 8 by 52.1%, just within a fraction of a percent of the actual result. However, if Californians were to vote on it in, say, 2010, an amendment like Prop 8 would fail by a mirrored margin. Basically, same-sex marriage bans are losing ground fairly fast.

According to Silver, Iowa would, if an election were held today on a marriage ban, pass that ban by a wide margin; however, by 2012, it would be a toss up with a bare minimum voting for it.

Silver’s prediction dates for the tipping points upon which a state would vote down a ban are interesting. The South is the last area that would fall, with Mississippi being the last state to start supporting civil marriage laws in 2024.

For his full analysis, go to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/will-iowans-uphold-gay-marriage.html

Both Paula Brooks and Bridget McBride contributed to this story.