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Gov. Baldacci Signs Same-Sex Marriage Bill, What Does It Mean Going Forward

Barring a challenge from Maine’s same-sex marriage opponents, Maine is the fifth state to legalize same-sex marriage; the second to do so via the legislative process; and the first to do so without an overridden veto.

In signing the law, Governor John Baldacci said “in the past, I opposed gay marriage while supporting the idea of civil unions,” Baldacci said in a written statement. “I have come to believe that this is a question of fairness and of equal protection under the law, and that a civil union is not equal to civil marriage.”

What Governor Baldacci’s signature may do is put even more pressure on his neighbor Governor John Lynch of New Hampshire to sign their bill once it reaches his desk. Currently, the only state in the New England which does not have either same-sex marriage or civil unions is Rhode Island. However, several bills are before the Rhode Island legislature which would legalize either of those two options. New York and New Jersey are also considering their own same-sex marriage bills.

New Hampshire’s marriage equality bill will likely reach Governor Lynch’s desk within the next week. He is currently under enormous pressure to both sign and veto the bill. However, the passage of this law in Maine and the legalization of it in Vermont may be enough for him to look after the financial interests of his own state and sign the bill rather than face the drain on the coffers that even more gay and lesbian New Hampshirites going across the border to marry will mean.

Maine does have the option for the people to gather enough signatures in order to override the passage of any particular law, but it will take time for that to happen. By the time the vote happens, it is likely that Maine will be comfortable enough with marriage equality that any vote that takes place will end with this remaining legal.

Currently, Maine’s population is evenly split on the issue of marriage equality, and this may be the tipping point. Polls in California prior to Prop 8 showed California being just slightly against marriage equality. This resulted in the passage of Prop 8. According to Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has Maine pegged right now as either favoring marriage equality or being on the fence. By the time this could be brought up for a vote, the likelihood is that the balance will be for same-sex marriage.

There are many who hate the fact that the nation is moving towards marriage equality. The recent campaign by the National Organization for Marriage (NOM) has been at the center of a great deal of ridicule with satires of their Gathering Storm advertisement running amok across the internets. Many other missteps occurred which prevented NOM from gaining traction on this issue in New England, not least of which was an ad buy that blanketed Vermont after Governor Douglas’ veto was overridden.

The passage of Maine’s law may also help to pressure the California Supreme Court into ruling against Prop 8. Their decision is expected soon. If they do strike down Prop 8 on the grounds argued, California will join Massachusetts, Connecticut, Iowa, Vermont and Maine in allowing all their citizens to marry as equals under the law.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/will-iowans-uphold-gay-marriage.html