New York’s Marriage Bill’s Future Murky At Best

A recent NY1 poll of the 62 State Senators in New York has shown that the bill which will grant same-sex couples marriage rights in the Empire State is on shaky ground. Current numbers indicate that the bill might not pass if it does come up for a vote in the State Senate. The State Assembly passed the bill earlier this year. The bill requires thirty-two to vote yes on the bill, and currently there are only twenty firm yes votes out there. Currently, there are twenty-eight who plan to vote ‘no’. All of the yes votes come from the Democrats while twenty-two Republicans and six Democrats are firmly against this bill.

There are fourteen who have either stated that they will not answer the poll or that they are undecided. It would take three of those undecideds to vote ‘no’ for the bill to fail. Currently, the leadership in the New York Senate appears to be cautious about this, but NY Senator Thomas Duane stated that he believes that they have the votes to advance the bill to Governor David Patterson’s desk. Alan Van Capelle pointed out that this bill may not be as dead as the critics who oppose it believe. Many of those who are publicly ‘no’ on this bill have not closed their doors to meetings with marriage equality advocates. Marriage opponents are, of course, busy crowing over this bill claiming that it is about to go down in flames. Unfortunately, in politics, nothing is ever certain until the final vote is cast.

Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight points out that some of the reluctant voices on this bill hail from constituencies which heavily support same-sex marriage rights.

Recently, marriage equality has gained ground throughout the North East. Vermont and Maine passed their own marriage equality bills early this year. Vermont did so over the veto of Governor Jim Douglas. In overturning Douglas’ veto, the Vermont Legislature did something that had not been done since the governorship of Richard Snelling, predecessor of Howard Dean. The dynamic in the state has changed a bit since that veto override, and Governor Douglas recently lost a second veto override battle, this time over the state budget. Maine’s marriage equality bill may face a voter veto battle in 2010.

New Hampshire’s Senate passed a compromise bill with new wording no the issue of marriage equality. The bill is expected to be voted on in the House this afternoon.

Iowa’s Supreme Court this year legalized same-sex marriage, and joined Massachusetts and Connecticut in extending marriage benefits to all citizens. Currently there are five states which legally allow same-sex couples to marry. California is gearing up for a new battle on the issue, and may strike down Prop 8 in 2010.

Includes breakdown of who is and isn’t voting for marriage equality in New York.

http://ny1.com/Default.aspx?ArID=100119

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/is-gay-marraige-coming-or-going-in-ny.html