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Anti-Marriage Equality Yes on 1 Campaign Reliant On Non-Maine Donations

10/25/09-by Bridgette P. LaVictoire
Despite claims to the contrary, Yes on 1 in Maine has gotten the bulk of their money from outside the state rather than from within. In fact, according to Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.com, Yes on 1 has gotten close to three quarters of their total funding from outside Maine while No on 1 has gotten closer to a fifty/fifty split. While the majority of the money on both sides is from outside the state, No on 1 has gotten only 53% of their funding from outside Maine compared to Yes on 1’s 70%.

It also gets worse for Yes on 1. The majority of their instate donations have come from big amounts. The average instate donation to Yes on 1 has been $1,064 compared to No on 1’s average donation being just over $500. That means that for every one person that is enthusiastic enough to donate to Yes on 1, there are two people who are willing to donate to No on 1, at least on average. In truth, Yes on 1 has had a total of 422 instate donors while No on 1 has had 3,766 donors.

Yes on 1 has also not garnered a great deal of donations from outside the state either. In total, they have had 225 donors from outside Maine. No on 1 has had 6,259 donors from outside the state. The average amount donated, though, is drastically different with Yes on 1 getting an average of over $8,000 per donor from outside the state compared to the average non-Maine donation for No on 1 being $368.

Yes on 1 is also heavily dependent upon two donors- the Roman Catholic Church in Portland and the National Organization for Marriage. Again, according to Nate Silver, those two represent over ninety percent of the contributions given to the Yes on 1 campaign. While No on 1 has certainly benefitted from large donations such as those by the Human Rights Campaign and several Hollywood celebrities, it amounts to around 36% of their total donations.

The numbers provided by Mr. Silver are similar, though more detailed, than the breakdown on this issue that I did earlier. It also points to an enthusiasm gap between the two sides as it comes into the final stretch. While many Mainers might have the intention to vote to overturn the recent law granting marriage equality to the state’s gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender residents, those who are on the Yes side may be far less willing to head out and disrupt their day than their day than those who are willing to vote No. Making matters more complicated is the weather. If it is cold and rainy, those who are not enthusiastic about this may chose not to vote at all.

That, of course, does not mean that there should be complacency regarding a vote to prevent this veto from occurring. The grassroots machine is going to be trying to get every No vote to the poll, and will likely continue to need money to do that.