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Showdown Time In Maine- Yes or No on Question 1

11/02/09-by Bridgette P. LaVictoire
On Tuesday, Maine voters will be going to the polls to determine if outside money can buy a New England election. The outcome of this election could determine the future of Senator Olympia Snowe, or whether or not the New Hampshire race to replace Senator Judd Gregg will be determined more from within the states than from places like Utah, Georgia, and Alabama. According to Nate Silver, nine times more Mainers have donated to the No on 1 campaign than have donated to the Yes on 1 campaign. The bulk of the Yes on 1 campaign’s funds have come from either the National Organization for Marriage, a group rumored to be affiliated with the Mormon Church, and the Roman Catholic Church, which can ill afford this fight.

Only one poll right now show Yes on 1 winning, but by four points. A lot will depend on turnout, and what kind of people turn out. If the crowd is younger, there is a probability that the vote could go the other direction. If the turnout mirrors that of the 2006 election in terms of liberal and conservative, it could easily fall that the people will uphold the law.

Much of the Yes on 1 campaign has been recycled from the California Prop 8 battle including attacks on how marriage equality is already the norm in Massachusetts, a state which is a half hour drive from the southern border of Maine. The usual religious arguments have also fallen flat in Maine due to the fact that the state is, itself, like Vermont and not one of the most beholden to organized religion. Questions have also arisen as to the origin of much of the money from both the Roman Catholic Church Portland diocese and from NOM. The refusal of NOM to release their donor lists has brought charges that they are laundering money and allowing people to circumvent local, state and federal laws governing the amount of money being donated to political campaigns. The funneling of funds out of the Roman Catholic Church have come at a time when diocese across the country are filing for bankruptcy and closing schools and churches as funds dry up. The group Focus on the Family helped to initialize this ballot initiative, and they have put a lot of money into it at a time when donations are declining and they are having to lay off staff.

While the No on 1 campaign has received outside funding, it amounts to less than half their donations. Many Mainers have donated to the No on 1 campaign, and have, in fact, been donating small amounts rather than large ones.

The outcome of this election could have a national effect. If groups like NOM can buy an election in Maine, what is to stop groups like the Club for Growth from piping in a ton of money to unseat Senators Snowe and Collins. Should both senators be removed, that would seriously hurt Maine’s seniority in the Senate. It could also affect the race against Senator Pat Leahy if an outside group believes that they can just buy a New England election.

The election hinges greatly on the turnout. If Maine upholds the law, then it will be the first state to have had this issue go before the voters and be voted in favor of. Should this happen, it will obliterate one of the leading arguments that these groups have had that the voters should decide.