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Anti-Marriage Amendments Face Tough Road In Iowa and New Hampshire

01/06/09-by Bridgette P. LaVictoire
When in doubt, make the election about saving marriage. That is what socially conservative groups in New Hampshire and Iowa are trying to do despite long odds of ever actually getting anti-marriage amendments passed. The Republican Party in Iowa, at least, is more than willing to embrace the issue of putting an anti-marriage amendment before the voters, but even the latest polling shows the majority of Iowans are more concerned about issues other than marriage. Sixty-three percent of all people in a recent Des Moines Register poll responded that there were more important issues than marriage equality, and ninety-two percent said that it had not changed their lives.

Unlike California, New Hampshire and Iowa have rather rigorous standards when it comes to constitutional amendments. In New Hampshire, it would take three fifths of both chambers in the state to pass, and then two thirds of the state’s population would have to approve it. With most polls showing over a third vehemently support marriage equality in New Hampshire, the probability of getting it through the ballot is nearly impossible. Of course, it would also require two chambers of the legislature enough to get an overwhelming majority of Republicans into office who would support this amendment. Odds of that happening are slim as well. In Iowa, it would take two different sets of legislators to get a ballot measure passed, and would then require a vote. Given that the Democrats have stated firmly that they will not vote on this matter due to other issues being more important right now, the earliest the first vote could happen would be 2011, and the second vote would be in 2013, and the vote would have to be held in 2014. Of course, this is contingent upon the people of Iowa electing two different legislatures dominated by Republicans who will vote against marriage equality. In 2004, four Republicans joined twenty-one Democrats in defeating a similar amendment.

The 2010 election cycle is not going to be an easy one for the Democrats or the Republicans. Many of the more conservative Republicans are facing a population which is not entirely supportive of them. Bread and butter issues are dominating the election cycle still, and Social Conservatives are finding it hard to connect to a population who are more worried about health care costs than they are about what two people do in bed. Even Conservatives admit that it is uncertain whether or not this move will have any effect. “Republican leaders have already promised to make it a key issue in 2010. It remains to be seen how well that helps them at the ballot box. Gay marriage is the key issue with the Iowa GOP’s social conservative base, but I think more people are concerned about the economy, jobs and the ineptitude of the Culver administration,” Conservative blogger Kevin Hall stated. The reality is that social issues may be able to muster greater support when they stand alone, but they may not be able to stand very well when other issues are taking the forefront of people’s attention.

The push in New Hampshire is to get enough people to vocally discuss this issue at the upcoming town hall meetings in hopes of drumming up support for the push to get the legislators to allow a constitutional amendment vote on this issue. Given the difficulties facing New Hampshire, it is probable that many people might want to air out grievances regarding the vote and the law, but it is unlikely that they will have any effect in getting an amendment passed at any time before Mount Washington crumbles into dust. Anti-marriage equality bills have been rejected thrice by the legislature in the passed four years.