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Poll Shows Rep. Sestak Leading Sen. Specter In Primary Match Up

03/04/10-by Bridgette P. LaVictoire
Some interesting numbers are coming out of the Sestak campaign regarding their standing against incumbent Democratic Senator Arlen Specter. According to their polling, Sestak leads Specter 57% to 34%. What makes this significant is that it is only among Democratic voters that they are polling, and the Pennsylvania primary is limited to just Democrats.

It should not be too surprising that Democrats are not happy with Senator Specter, who defected from the Republican Party in order to try and keep his seat. There is, undoubtably, a sense among Pennsylvania Democrats that Senator Specter is not one of them, but rather someone who is more interested in keeping his seat.

In the race against Pat Toomey, who is the presumptive and likely Republican nominee, the party switching on the part of Specter would make a very easy target, and with Republicans upset over Specter’s defection and a general feeling of ‘throw the bums out’, Specter may easily lose to a man who is far to the Right and aligned with the same Glen Beck faction which has been holding up rather dubious signage regarding President Obama. In short, this is not a good time to be an incumbent, and certainly not a good time to be one who has switched parties.

Republican Pat Toomey has tried to paint Representative Joe Sestak with much the same brush as he has Senator Specter; however, it has not really worked. During his years in the military, Admiral Sestak was a-political. This is not uncommon for career members of the military given that they may be called upon to work with members of opposing Parties in order to do what is best for the military. After leaving the military, Sestak officially joined the Democrats and ran for office.

The reach of the anti-Washington sentiment might not be as far north as many people would think. This may work in Representative Sestak’s favor. Many of the strongest Tea Party protests were in the South. For instance, when one got as far north as Vermont, the protests often amounted to less than a hundred people in the entire state. Indeed, even Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts has stated publicly that his election had nothing to do with the Tea Party movement. Pennsylvania is likely to be a race not unlike Massachusetts and hinging more on the issues local to the state and the personalities involved.

On many LGBT issues, both Specter and Sestak have similar views; however, Representative Sestak has been available to testify before the house regarding the law known colloquially as Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.

As a note, this information is based on campaign specific polling. While it is likely accurate, as Nate Silver would put it, there is probably some strong in-house bias. Polling on this subject is also rather scattered.

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