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Possible Republican Take Over Could Threaten DADT Repeal- Maybe

08/25/10-by Bridgette P. LaVictoire
It appears that the election will happen before September and the Defense Authorization bill, which includes the language to repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, will not make it through Congress when the Republicans win the House, or that appears to be the, um, thinking behind this particular statement from Politico relayed via the Washington Blade.

IF REPUBLICANS WIN THE HOUSE – Lobbyists predict that defense bills will come to a screeching halt, which could spell doom for the already controversial defense authorization bill. They provide a couple of reasons: The level of partisan bickering is likely to intensify, and waiting and letting Republicans handle those bills next year will allow the Democrats to play the blame game. The one kind of legislation that’s likely to move, insiders say, is a continuing resolution.

Hm…where to begin.  First of all, the bill is likely to come up for a vote in September, not in December, which means that while there may be partisan bickering, it is unlikely to be in as much jeopardy as it might appear.  Secondly, despite what the lobbyists might be stating, the Republicans filibustering or voting against this bill would put them into jeopardy in November since this will make them vulnerable to the argument that they are weak on Defense and willing to abandon the troops while the nation is engaged in two wars.

While other budget bills are likely to end up with a continuing resolution, this one seems less likely because of the damage that filibustering it will do to the Republicans and not passing it will do to the Democrats.

Over all, it is likely that the bill will be passed by Congress in late September and fully through Congress by the middle of October before Congress goes into the flurry of getting through the elections.  In fact, part of the problem with this assumption that is being made by the lobbyists is that the Democrats will lose in November rather than win.  While this might seem likely looking at the polling, so was a victory by Lisa Murkowski.  Polling is wonderful, but it is not an absolute, and a lot of people are counting on voting patterns in the polling which are heavily favoring the Republicans.  The polling companies may even be over counting the Republicans who may turn out in fewer numbers in the end.

In the end, elections are harder to predict than people would like.

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