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Iran’s Threats, War Games And Nuclear Announcement

One of the things that is essential for the survival of a totalitarian regime is distraction. When life inside a country becomes uncomfortable enough that the regime’s actions might be questioned, it is necessary to create a distraction, preferably something that will make an enemy threaten the country.

Life in Iran is uncomfortable. The treasury is in bad shape and subsidies to the poor have been cut back. There is an ongoing conflict between the secular government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the cleric government of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Various members of the secular government have been accused of everything from corruption to witchcraft. So, what does a good dictator do? Everything short of starting a war.

First, the Iranian government threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, that 21-mile wide piece of water through which 40% of the world’s oil is transported by ship, if any further sanctions were imposed on them. Then, they held “naval exercises” which they promised would include the testing of new missiles. They tested the first one, a medium range missile they claim is undetectable by radar. They say they are postponing the testing of their new long-range missile for later in the week. Finally, they announced that their scientists have manufactured a nuclear fuel rod which has been installed in a research reactor in Tehran.

They have a nuclear research reactor in Tehran? The same Tehran that Ahmadinejad said was so seismically unstable they should do a precautionary evacuation of the capital? That Tehran? Wow. Talk about suicidal. At least their nuclear power plant isn’t on a known fault line.

So, in response to the threats, war games and whatever, Saudi Arabia has announced that it will replace into the world’s oil markets any oil that cannot be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. That means replacing Iran’s contribution to the oil market if full international sanctions are imposed that shut down the country’s oil industry and banking. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would inconvenience Saudi Arabia, but not shut it down. Instead of shipping through the Persian Gulf, they could ship through the Red Sea.

The United States is holding its own naval maneuvers in the Persian Gulf, sort of a “you show me yours and I’ll show you mine” operation.

There’s a children’s book about a little dragon, no bigger than a teddy bear, who shows up in a kid’s bedroom one day. Everyone ignores it because there is no such thing as a dragon. So the dragon keeps growing, bigger and bigger until it is bigger than a house. Finally, someone says “Look at the dragon!” and the dragon instantly shrinks back to teddy bear size. The moral of the story is if you ignore a child who is doing something wrong, that child will just do worse and worse things until you do something about it. The child wants attention and misbehaving is the only way the child knows to get it. Same thing with Iran.

The world does not give Iran the respect it feels it deserves as the premiere Islamic state (even if the rest of the Muslim world, with only a couple of exceptions, isn’t interested in a Shia Sharia state) and the inheritors of Ancient Persia’s glory. It also resents being told what to do, as in stop the nuclear program or else.   So, Iran threatens and rattles its sabres and gets everyone riled up and the leaders point to the Republican Presidential candidates who are saying they would bomb Iran back into the Stone Age and tell their people what a horrible bully America is .

And while the media is focusing on the ships and missiles, Iran has quietly offered to re-open talks with the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. One of these days, the American media is going to wise up and realize that if they play up the talks instead of the threats, they will confound the Iranian leadership and make them look like the puffed-up dragon they really are.

 

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