The United States Supreme Court has, once again, not taken any action on any of the cases covering same-sex marriage. All that is known is that the Supreme Court could be looking at the cases this upcoming Friday, and may make a decision about acting on them that afternoon.
How the Supreme Court is going to rule on the cases is up in the air. Of course, Brian Brown of the National Organization for Marriage offered his thoughts:
“Almost everyone on both sides agrees that the [Supreme] Court is going to take the DOMA cases and we believe, we’re confident, the court is going to take the [Prop 8] Perry case. I think ultimately [the Court] will rule in our favor, in favor of the voters of California and the majority of states that have voted to protect marriage, the overwhelming majority, and in favor of the Constitution as it’s clearly written. There is no constitutional right, our Founders did not create some sort of constitutional right to redefine marriage and I think the Court’s going to rule that way.”
“On the attempt to overturn DOMA [our opponents] are arguing that states like Massachusetts that have passed same-sex marriage, that somehow that preempts Congress from defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman and that because the states define [marriage] the federal government has to recognize that. So they’re essentially making a strange states rights’ argument, but the federal government and our duly-elected representatives don’t have a right to define marriage. On the other hand, they’re arguing in the Perry case, the Proposition 8 case, that not only does the government have a right to define marriage — there’s an obligation in the U.S. Constitution to recognize and redefine marriage as same-sex marriage.
So on the one hand they’re arguing the U.S. Constitution demands same-sex marriage, it’s the federal government that has to redefine marriage throughout the country and overturn all of these laws that have been passed overwhelmingly in these 30 states through Constitutional amendments and 10 other states through statute … and in the DOMA case it’s arguing no, no, it’s a states’ issue.
So they’re trying to argue two different things and I think that’s why taking all the cases all at once will expose all of the sort of hypocrisy going on in these two very different and mutually exclusive arguments they’re making.”
The Supreme Court could actually decline to do so, effectively rendering DOMA irrelevant and ending Prop 8. Furthermore, despite his optimism, SCOTUS may not actually be as favorable to his position as he would like to believe. In essence, the Court has, on social issues, a stronger bench when it comes to Liberals than it does Conservatives. For instance, the only solid ‘no’ votes would be Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, and Antonin Scalia. The solid ‘yes’ votes would be Justices Sonya Sotomayor, Ruth Bader-Ginsberg, Stephen Breyer and Elena Kagan. That leaves two possible swing votes in Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy.
Chief Justice Roberts voted to uphold the healthcare reform act colloquially known as Obamacare, and Justice Kennedy voted in the majority with Lawrence v. Texas, the case that rendered consensual homosexual sex legal.