This week, the US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments regarding same-sex marriage and its status as a civil right. David Boies, one of the lead counsels on Hollingworth v. Perry, is confident that the Court will rule in favor of marriage equality. Boies said on Meet the Press that
“I think we’re gonna win. I don’t think we’re gonna win five-four.”
He went on to say that “I don’t think that this is the kind of issue that’s going to divide the court the way some other issues divide the court.”
The arguments come amid a groundswell of support for marriage equality; however, while Boies may be optimistic, the real outcome is hard to handicap. The real question is far more is the four big Conservatives on the bench are going to be willing to vote in favor of marriage equality. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito are the real wild cards here.
Justices Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia voted against striking down the nations sodomy laws back in Lawrence v. Texas. Scalia is likely a lost cause on this while Thomas might be open to a particular direction of argument. Roberts and Scalia have been a bit more open to being socially liberal than their two counterparts.