Gallup’s latest update on 2010 congressional voting preferences finds 50% of registered voters saying they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, and 43% for the Democratic candidate, if the elections were held today.

The vote among independent registered voters averaged 47% Republican to 34% Democratic, a 13-point GOP advantage.

Republicans have led in each of the past three weeks, and their current 50% vote share and seven percentage-point lead represent their best showings thus far in 2010.

Republicans typically turn out to vote in greater numbers than Democrats do. So their current seven-point advantage among all registered voters could represent the lower bound of the margin they could expect to win by (in the national two-party vote) if the elections were held today.

A strong Republican showing this fall would be consistent with Gallup’s recent research indicating that the party of a president with approval ratings below 50% tends to suffer heavy seat losses in midterm elections. The Republicans’ larger lead on the latest generic ballot coincides with a new low weekly job approval average of 44% for President Obama.

The Gallup survey also said, in addition to — or perhaps because of — increasing disappointment with the president, Republicans owe their renewed strength in August to two factors: greater parity with the Democrats in Americans’ political affiliation and slightly more support for Republican congressional candidates from independent voters.

via GOP Shows Strongest Positioning Yet in 2010 Vote Test.

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4-30-10 – Melanie Nathan

Amnesty International Report:-

The Mexican authorities must act to halt the continuing abuse of migrants who are preyed on by criminal gangs while public officials turn a blind eye or even play an active part in kidnappings, rapes and murders, Amnesty International said in a new report released on Tuesday.

Invisible Victims: Migrants on the Move in Mexico, documents the alarming levels of abuse faced by the tens of thousands of Central American irregular migrants that every year attempt to reach the US by crossing Mexico.

“Migrants in Mexico are facing a major human rights crisis leaving them with virtually no access to justice, fearing reprisals and deportation if they complain of abuses,” said Rupert Knox, Mexico Researcher at Amnesty International.

“Persistent failure by the authorities to tackle abuses carried out against irregular migrants has made their journey through Mexico one of the most dangerous in the world.”

Kidnappings of migrants, mainly for ransom, reached new heights in 2009, with the National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) reporting that nearly 10,000 were abducted over six months and almost half of interviewed victims saying that public officials were involved in their kidnapping.

An estimated six out of 10 migrant women and girls experience sexual violence, allegedly prompting some people smugglers to demand that women receive contraceptive injections ahead of the journey, to avoid them falling pregnant as a result of rape.

On 23 January 2010, armed police stopped a freight train carrying over 100 migrants in Chiapas State, Southern Mexico.

Veronica (not her real name) said that Federal Police forced her and the other migrants to leave the train and lie face down on the ground, before stealing their belongings and threatening to kill them unless they continued their journey by foot along the railway.

After walking for hours, the group was assaulted by armed men who raped Veronica and killed at least one other migrant.

Two suspects were later detained after a local activist helped the migrants file a complaint but no action was taken against the Federal Police, despite migrants identifying two officers allegedly involved.

“Mexico has a responsibility to prevent, punish and remedy abuses whether these are committed by criminal gangs or public officials,” said Rupert Knox.

The report calls for immediate action to ensure migrants’ access to complaint mechanisms regardless of their status and ensure effective investigations.

The vast majority of migrants travelling through Mexico are Central Americans headed for the US border in search of work.

Ruben Figueroa, a Mexican human rights defender who provides shelter and food for migrants, told Amnesty International: “They leave their homes because of the extreme poverty where they come from, the journey north is a nightmare for them but they do it for the families they have left behind.”

The Mexican government has often stated its commitment to protect the rights of migrants, whatever their legal status and is a leading promoter of migrants’ rights on the international stage.

Despite some welcome measures in recent years, for example better protection of the rights of unaccompanied children and criminalization of people trafficking, this has often in reality failed to prevent and punish abuses against migrants.

Amnesty International’s recommendations to address the human rights crisis include:

• Legislative reforms to ensure access to justice
• Establish a federal task force to coordinate and implement measures
• Compile and publish data on abuses against migrants and the steps taken to bring those responsible to account, including public officials.

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Grass root campaign helped win hearts and minds…

(April 12, 2010 – San Francisco, Calif.)  by Melanie Nathan:

Restore Equality 2010, the campaign working to extend marriage rights to all Californians, announced today the completion of their campaign to qualify language to repeal Proposition 8 on the November ballot. Over 150 days, the campaign mobilized thousands of new volunteers, engaged in hundreds of thousands of conversations, and collected signatures from every county in California. Although the campaign did not hit its goal of 694,354 valid signatures, it takes pride as being the only statewide effort fighting for immediate repeal of the discriminatory constitutional amendment. Despite the setback, Restore Equality 2010 announced that they will continue to fight for marriage equality in California.

Restore Equality 2010 was formed in August 2009 after the state’s largest gay rights organization, Equality California, declined to lead an effort to repeal Proposition 8. Although it started the campaign with no contacts, no infrastructure, and no money, the grassroots campaign built a statewide network of leaders and campaigners that furthered the state’s marriage equality movement.

“Our signature collection effort may have fallen short, but we stand tall as being the only statewide campaign that fought for repealing Proposition 8 in 2010,” said Sean Bohac, Chair of the Restore Equality 2010 Statewide Advisory Panel. “Our campaigners carried the torch of Harvey Milk, who showed that change only happens when we get out of the bars and into the streets. And our efforts are reflected in the new polls that show increased support for extending marriage to all Californians.”

Recent polling shows that a majority of California voters now support allowing same-sex couples the right to civil marriage. Separate polls recently conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California and the Los Angeles Times/USC show majority support for legalizing civil marriage for same-sex couples. Each of these polls show significantly increased support and decreased opposition from previous polls. However, Restore Equality 2010 commenced its campaign to repeal Proposition 8 before the recent polling, motivated by the knowledge that restoring equal marriage rights in California will require constant and sustained effort.

“For five months, our volunteers braved the elements and hit the streets because a California under Prop 8 was not OK with them, and the time to fight was now,” said Ian Hart, a San Francisco Bay Area Regional Representative to Restore Equality 2010. “Our greatest marriage equality supporters included soccer moms, little league dads, ministers, college professors, and military veterans. We had conversations in churches and sports bars, at transit stations, farmers markets, Lady Gaga concerts, and road races.”

The grassroots campaign was democratically managed by a statewide network of volunteers, and the campaign was sustained by donations of time, money, and materials. The campaign did not pay for a single signature.

“Marriage Equality USA commends and honors the leaders of Restore Equality 2010 who have fearlessly stood for righting the wrong of Proposition 8,” said Molly McKay Media Director Marriage Equality USA. “Restore Equality 2010’s dedication has renewed and continued the momentum towards the repeal of Proposition 8. We are grateful for their courage and commitment and know that these leaders will continue to play a key role in the marriage equality movement.”

Restore Equality 2010’s leaders are now planning for a November 2012 ballot effort, in which they hope to fight alongside the many LGBT and civil rights organizations who have publicly committed to helping repeal Proposition 8 in 2012. Signature collection is anticipated to commence in the summer of 2011.

A decision on the federal court case challenging the legality of Proposition 8 is anticipated this year. However, appeals are likely to delay a final decision by several years.

“Our campaign is now focused on 2012, and that effort starts today,” said Bohac. “We will continue to fight for marriage equality every year until the battle is won.”

Restore Equality thanked  its endorsers, a list that include several local Democratic, Green, and Libertarian party chapters, local grassroots LGBT organizations, as well as numerous politicians and political candidates. The statewide Democratic Party did not support the repeal effort. Restore Equality 2010 also lauds the leadership of the Los Angeles-based organization Love Honor Cherish for drafting and submitting the ballot language and for its own signature collecting effort.

contact information for Restore Equality is info@restoreequality2010.com.

By Melanie Nathan
nathan@privatecourts.com

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The local school board later cancelled the event after the American Civil Liberties Union wrote a letter to the board members protesting those decisions, so McMillen sued the school system.

Judge Glen H. Davidson ruled last week that the First Amendment right of self-expression is denied when students are prohibited from attending the prom with a same-sex date. Also, he said, Ms. McMillen’s right to communicate a message — that women should not be required to wear traditionally female clothing — was infringed when she was prohibited from wearing a tuxedo.

Judge Davidson did not order the school to reinstate the prom because parents were expected to hold one that Ms. McMillen and her girlfriend will be able to attend, but as a result of the ruling, the school district may be liable for damages for violating Ms. McMillen’s rights, and for attorneys’ fees.

What do you think?

[poll id="23"]

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Melanie Nathan, 3-24-10. A Majority – 50% to 45% =of Californians recognize that same-sex marriage ain’t gonna bite! Finally a majority of Californians believe same-sex marriage is perfectly fine.

According to the Public Policy Institute of California, a majority of the State’s residents are more likely to support same-sex marriage than to oppose it, with those against marriage equality at 45 percent. It is the first time a PPIC poll has found more than 45 percent support for same-sex marriage since it began asking about marriage equality in 2000.

Fifty percent of Californians now support the right for same-sex couples to marry, according to results of a poll recently conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), a non-profit and non-partisan think tank. A significant six-point jump from last year’s March 2009 PPIC poll, the findings are the best result PPIC has ever recorded on this issue. The poll also illustrates a trend of increasing support for other basic rights for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender individuals and their families among Californians.

In response to the new data, Equality California’s Executive Director Geoff Kors issued the following statement:

“We are very pleased that the more than 700,000 conversations about marriage that Equality California has initiated over the past year with Californians across the state, alongside our tireless volunteers and coalition partners, are making a remarkable difference. We are seeing the tremendous impact of reaching out, one-on-one, to change hearts and minds toward equality and fairness.

“Moving forward, we are committed to having more than 1 million conversations with voters in order to achieve solid majority support by 2012, when we will return to the ballot to restore the freedom to marry.” March 24, 2010

Californians are horribly dissatisfied with Arnold Schwarzenegger.   Can you imagine Meg Whitman?  She will be our worst nightmare. Imagine now that we finally have the numbers on our side – getting an anti-proposition 8 Ballot measure passed and then having anti-gay  Meg Whitman getting it on her desk for signature?   After all we have been through – OY-VEY – MEG-GO AWAY – No Republicans in California Government Please. We want marriage Equality and we finally have our voice.

I believe this  change in sentiment is with great thanks to the dismantling of the misinformation engendered by Mormon ads during the Prop 8 campaign in 2008.  Californians will no longer listen to zealots from outside our bounds.  We are pro gay marriage at last!

Thank you EQCA,

Mayor Newsom

Thank you NCLR!

Thank You City of San Francisco,

SF City Attorneys,

State Senator Mark Leno

By Melanie Nathan, nathan@privatecourts.com

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According to the poll, 47 percent of those asked say same-sex marriages should be legal, with 31 percent saying they feel that way “strongly.”

However,the poll also showed intensity is stronger among opponent and overall, half said such marriages should be illegal, including 42 percent who say so strongly.

Also according to the poll, a marked age divide remains on the issue, with younger adults more supportive of marriage equality for LGBTs, while most seniors oppose it. A majority of those under age 30 say they feel strongly that gay marriages should be legal, marking the first time in Post-ABC polling that figure has topped 50 percent.

The poll also shows that Democrats and independents are far more likely to favor marriage equality for LGBTs than are Republicans. And support is highest in the Northeast, where most of the states that allow legal same-sex marriage are located.

The poll also found states in the Midwest and South are more likley to oppose making same-sex marriages legal.
Q. Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married?

However when asked about Civil Unions, two-thirds of those asked now say they favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to form civil unions that would give them many of the same legal rights as married couples, an increase of 12 percentage points since a poll that asked the same question in December 2007.

Full Poll Results Here

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Yes. (17%, 26 Votes)
No. (67%, 100 Votes)
Maybe. (9%, 14 Votes)
I don’t know. (7%, 10 Votes)

Total Voters: 150

* Never… at least not that I know of. (26%, 32 Votes)
* Only once… there were rainbows everywhere. (6%, 7 Votes)
* A couple of times… yes, there were rainbows. (31%, 37 Votes)
* Very often… I see rainbows in my rear view. (21%, 25 Votes)
* Every day… my neighborhood is uber-gay. (16%, 20 Votes)

Total Voters:  121

* Yes, there is truth to the legend. (22%, 47 Votes)
* No, it’s just a myth. (11%, 24 Votes)
* WTF is LBD? (67%, 145 Votes)

Total Voters: 216

* Yes. (I am heterosexual) (5%, 14 Votes)
* Yes. (I am homosexual) (48%, 136 Votes)
* Yes. (I am bisexual) (11%, 32 Votes)
* Yes. (I am transsexual) (9%, 24 Votes)
* Yes. (I am asexual) (1%, 3 Votes)
* No. (I am heterosexual) (10%, 28 Votes)
* No. (I am homosexual) (8%, 23 Votes)
* No. (I am bisexual) (6%, 17 Votes)
* No. (I am transsexual) (0%, 1 Votes)
* No. (I am asexual) (2%, 4 Votes)

Total Voters: 282

* Coming out of the closet can kill their career. (21%, 8 Votes)
* TV land isn’t ready for too many out lesbians. (34%, 13 Votes)
* There are more out lesbians on TV than we know. (29%, 11 Votes)
* I don’t care about seeing out lesbians on TV. (16%, 6 Votes)

Total Voters: 38

* Never (58%, 85 Votes)
* Often (26%, 38 Votes)
* Once or Twice (16%, 24 Votes)

Total Voters: 147

* I am a 0 – Exclusively heterosexual (17%, 28 Votes)
* I am a 1 – Predominantly heterosexual, only incidentally homosexual (4%, 6 Votes)
* I am a 2 – Predominantly heterosexual, but more than incidentally homosexual (3%, 5 Votes)
* I am a 3 – Equally heterosexual and homosexual; bisexual. (4%, 7 Votes)
* I am a 4 – Predominantly homosexual, but more than incidentally heterosexual (9%, 15 Votes)
* I am a 5 – Predominantly homosexual, only incidentally heterosexual (22%, 37 Votes)
* I am a 6 – Exclusively homosexual (41%, 70 Votes)

Total Voters: 168

Yes.       20
No.        160
Maybe so.       43

Total Votes: 223

* Too many. (65.0%, 42 Votes)
* Not enough. (20.0%, 13 Votes)
* What’s the point? (8.0%, 5 Votes)
* Who’s Prop 8? (8.0%, 5 Votes)

Total Voters: 65

* Because their religion directs them to be. (19.0%, 55 Votes)
* Because it was instilled by a parent. (9.0%, 26 Votes)
* Because on a certain level they are ignorant. (20.0%, 57 Votes)
* Because they think being gay is contagious. (2.0%, 6 Votes)
* Because they are secretly gay themselves. (5.0%, 14 Votes)
* All of the above. (36.0%, 105 Votes)
* None of the above. (9.0%, 27 Votes)

Total Votes: 290

* Never I’m still in the closet. (14.0%, 12 Votes)
* I don’t have to ‘come out’, it’s obvious that I’m an LGBT. (25.0%, 22 Votes)
* I have to ‘come out’ to old acquaintances I run into now and then. (23.0%, 20 Votes)
* I have to ‘come out’ to someone new at least once a week. (11.0%, 10 Votes)
* I have to ‘come out’ to someone new every few days. (6.0%, 5 Votes)
* I have to ‘come out’ to someone new every single day. (6.0%, 5 Votes)
* I’m not gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender so this question is irrelevant to me. (16.0%, 14 Votes)

Total Voters: 88

Yes, I think it’s just a matter of time. (26.0%, 21 Votes)
Yes, I think he will eventually. (14.0%, 11 Votes)
No, he only made promises to get our vote. (30.0%, 24 Votes)
No, once he got in office his agenda changed. (10.0%, 8 Votes)
Maybe, it could go either way. (5.0%, 4 Votes)
I don’t know, it’s hard to say. (10.0%, 8 Votes)
I really just don’t care. (5.0%, 4 Votes)

Total Voters: 80

Do you think that gay marriage in Iowa will impact the judges ruling on Prop 8 in California?

* Yes (49.0%, 19 Votes)
* No (38.0%, 15 Votes)
* I don’t know. (13.0%, 5 Votes)
* I don’t care. (0.0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 39

Total Voters: 36

Once or twice, sometimes. (26.0%, 15 Votes)
Hundreds of times, I love all things gay! (26.0%, 15 Votes)
More than ten times, I’m a really big fan. (21.0%, 12 Votes)
Five or ten times, I am a little more exposed. (19.0%, 11 Votes)
Never, I’m completely closed off from the gay community. (9.0%, 5 Votes)

Total Voters: 58

Yes (53.0%, 64 Votes)
No (28.0%, 34 Votes)
I don’t know. (11.0%, 13 Votes)
I don’t care. (5.0%, 6 Votes)
Who is Prop 8? (3.0%, 3 Votes)

Total Voters: 120

Are you going to follow the Prop. 8 hearings in California March 5th?

* Yes (I’m not from California) (49.0%, 39 Votes)
* Yes (I’m from California) (41.0%, 32 Votes)
* No (I’m not from California) (6.0%, 5 Votes)
* No (I’m from California) (4.0%, 3 Votes)
* Maybe (I’m from California) (0.0%, 0 Votes)
* Maybe (I’m now from California) (0.0%, 0 Votes)
* I don’t know. (0.0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 79

Have you been watching The L Word?

* Yes – I’ve been making it a point to watch. (40.0%, 25 Votes)
* No – I never watch that show. (35.0%, 22 Votes)
* Yes – and I wish I wouldn’t. (11.0%, 7 Votes)
* No – but I wish I could. (10.0%, 6 Votes)
* Who is The L Word?? (5.0%, 3 Votes)

Total Voters: 63

Of course! 37 (94%)

No, civil rights was an issue of color. 1 (2%)

I’m so over it. 1 (2%)

Votes: 39

“If gay marriage was legal where you live would you marry your current partner?”

In a heartbeat! 15 (75%)
Slow down, wait a minute… 1 (5%)
Yeah, I think so. 1 (5%)
We could definitely talk about it. 3 (15%)
No way, no how. 0 (0%)
I can’t answer that, she’s right here!! 0 (0%)

Total Votes: 20